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Hello! And welcome back to Baney's Bracketology, the weekly breakdown of which high school football teams in Idaho look good for the postseason, and which teams still have work to do.
With just two weeks to play in the regular season, some teams have already mathematically clinched a conference or league title, while others are mathematically "safe" when it comes to the MaxPreps rankings. Others, meanwhile, still have work to do and could be sweating things out until the actual brackets are unveiled.
Once again, we're categorizing teams into three categories:
LOCK - These are teams that are mathematically assured of a playoff spot. We will be somewhat judicious in handing these out this week, but will get more lenient with each passing week of action.
WORK TO DO - These are teams that should feel pretty good about their playoff chances, with room to improve their standing with strong performances
ON THE BUBBLE - These are the teams that are either just sneaking in, or just being left out, in our current bracket projections. One good performance can alter the cut line drastically, so all of the teams lumped in here should try and handle business themselves, rather than tempt the mathematical gods at MaxPreps.
Without further ado, let's get to it!
CLASS 6A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (6 automatic bids)
District 5-6 (2 automatic bids)
At-Large (3 bids)
LOCK - Rocky Mountain, Rigby, Eagle, Mountain View, Timberline, Madison, Coeur d'Alene
WORK TO DO - Owyhee, Highland, Middleton, Capital
ON THE BUBBLE - Boise, Meridian, Kuna, Post Falls
Once again, the top six teams appear pretty solid, and in fact, I've officially moved them into "Lock" status. Rigby has officially clinched the District 5-6 regular season title. The Trojans are 2-0, and only Thunder Ridge is left on the schedule. The Titans have two losses in conference, so even if Rigby lost to them, the Trojans would still have the tiebreaker with either a one-loss Madison or Highland team, thanks to their head-to-head victories.
Madison and Highland meet next week in the regular season finale. The winner of that game will take second place from the east, and grab an automatic bid and a home game during the first round of the playoffs. The loser will have to qualify via an at-large bid and will hit the road for their postseason opener.
Up north, Coeur d'Alene took the first step towards winning the Inland Empire League title with their 33-12 win over Lake City last Friday. The Vikings now host Post Falls this Friday on IdahoSports.com, and with a win, Coeur d'Alene will officially clinch the IEL title. Post Falls needs to win this game to keep their faint playoff hopes alive: right now, the only path forward for the Trojans is winning the IEL outright. They finish with Coeur d'Alene this week and Lake City in the season finale, so this is still a possibility for Post Falls.
And in the Southern Idaho Conference of District 3, Rocky Mountain and Eagle continue to outpace the competition in the Foothills and River Divisions, respectively. Eagle has officially clinched the River Division title, with a perfect 4-0 record. Even with a loss to Borah in their finale this week, the Mustangs have the head-to-head tiebreaker over second-place Mountain View. The Foothills Division title, meanwhile, will be decided on Friday at Dona Larsen Park in Boise, as Timberline hosts Rocky Mountain. The winner between the Grizzlies (4-0) and Wolves (3-1) will claim the title outright. Timberline's earlier loss to Middleton was negated by the Vikings falling to Rocky Mountain last week. The loss puts Middleton at 2-2 in the Division, so a Timberline win over Rocky Mountain would still give the Wolves the outright division title. However, a Timberline loss to Rocky Mountain, coupled with a Middleton win over Capital, would see both teams finish with 3-2 divisional records, and in that scenario, Middleton would leapfrog Timberline for second place thanks to their head-to-head win. Needless to say, there's a lot on the line for Timberline this Friday.
As a reminder, the winner of each division (Foothills and River) will play each other in Week 10 for the SIC Championship, and regardless of that outcome, both participants will receive byes into the quarterfinal round of the 6A postseason.
Also in Week 10, the last-place finishers from each division will play each other (with neither team able to advance to the postseason), while the remaining four teams from each division will play in cross-divisional games. The winner of each cross-divisional game earns an auto bid to the playoffs, while the losers of the cross-division games will have to sweat it out via the at-large process. The cross-division games will look like this (current projected matchups are in parentheses):
FOOTHILLS #1 vs. RIVER #1 (Rocky Mountain vs. Eagle)
FOOTHILLS #5 at RIVER #2 (Meridian at Mountain View)
RIVER #5 at FOOTHILLS #2 (Kuna at Middleton)
FOOTHILLS #4 at RIVER #3 (Capital at Boise)
RIVER #4 at FOOTHILLS #3 (Owyhee at Timberline)
FOOTHILLS #6 vs. RIVER #6 (Centennial vs. Borah)
In my current projections, I have Rocky Mountain defeating Timberline, which would drop the Wolves to third in the Foothills Division. Other movement from last week included:
Boise (2-2) jumping into third in the River Division ahead of Owyhee (2-2), thanks to their thrilling 29-28 win over the Storm.
Borah (0-4) officially clinching last place in the River Division. Even with a win over Eagle this week, the best the Lions could do is tie with Kuna at 1-4, and the Kavemen have the head-to-head win already. Therefore, Borah has been eliminated from playoff consideration.
Centennial (0-4) still has a slim chance in the Foothills Division, only because they play the team directly ahead of it, Meridian (1-3), on Friday. The winner of this game will finish fifth, while the loser will be eliminated from playoff contention and will face Borah in the final week of the season.
CLASS 5A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1-2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (2 automatic bids)
District 4 (2 automatic bids)
District 5 (1 automatic bid)
District 6 (2 automatic bids)
At-Large (8 bids)
LOCK - Bishop Kelly, Hillcrest, Skyline, Lakeland, Twin Falls, Blackfoot, Sandpoint
WORK TO DO - Lewiston, Minico, Century, Columbia
ON THE BUBBLE - Ridgevue, Shelley, Boneville, Vallivue, Emmett, Nampa, Preston, Pocatello, Skyview
This week's breakdown features seven "locks". These teams essentially have such strong MaxPreps resumes already that they can feel good about their playoff chances.
The biggest intrigue came from North Idaho, where Lewiston thumped Sandpoint in the Inland Empire League opener for both teams, 54-27. It puts Lewiston alone in first at 1-0. Sandpoint hosts Lakeland this Friday, and Lakeland hosts Lewiston the following Friday. There's a chance we could have a three-way tie for the IEL crown, with everyone finishing 1-1. Or, Lakeland could defeat Sandpoint and set up a winner-take-all battle with Lewiston in the regular season finale. All three teams should make the playoffs, but only one will receive a coveted top eight seed and a home playoff game. The other two will have to travel.
In District 5, Century remains unbeaten at 7-0 after their come-from-behind 22-15 win over Preston. The Diamondbacks fell behind 15-0 early, but outscored the Indians 22-0 the rest of the way to earn the win. Preston now faces Pocatello on Friday; the loser may be eliminated from postseason contention entirely. Of course, if Pocatello wins, it would set up a winner-take-all contest with Century in two weeks in the season finale.
Hillcrest has officially wrapped up the District 6 regular season title. Their only conference opponent that remains is winless Idaho Falls in two weeks, and even if the Knights lost that game, they have the head-to-head tiebreaker with Skyline, the only team that could tie them in the loss column. Speaking of Skyline, the Grizzlies have also officially wrapped up second place in the district, which means they'll have a top eight seed and a home playoff game in the opening round. The Grizzlies also have one conference opponent remaining, Bonneville, in two weeks, but even with a loss there, they have the head-to-head tiebreakers over Blackfoot and Shelley, the other potential teams that could tie them.
Speaking of Shelley, all it took was one standout victory over Bonneville to vault the 1-6 Russets into the playoff picture. They had been hanging on the fringes of the playoff race despite a winless record, and now the Russets have a chance to move further up the rankings with games against Idaho Falls and Blackfoot remaining.
Bonneville is hanging on to a playoff berth for now, but a monumental non-conference game will take place this Friday when the Bees host Skyview. The Hawks are currently out of the playoff picture, but a win over Bonneville could allow Skyview to move up into the top 16 (perhaps at Bonneville's expense).
Speaking of District 3, Bishop Kelly hosts Ridgevue this week, and the winner will move one step closer to the regular season conference title. The Knights are 4-0, while the Warhawks are 3-1, so a win by Bishop Kelly would clinch it for the Knights. Ridgevue would still need to defeat BK this week and Skyview in the season finale to officially claim the title.
District 4 remains unchanged. Minico (4-0) and Twin Falls (3-0) are on a crash course for the Great Basin Conference title in the regular season finale in two weeks. Both teams will finish 1-2 in some order, which means both will clinch a top eight seed and a home playoff game in the opening round. Also, no other team from District 4 is likely to make the playoffs this year.
CLASS 4A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1-2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (1 automatic bid)
District 4 (1 automatic bid)
District 5 (1 automatic bid)
District 6 (1 automatic bid)
At-Large (7 bids)
LOCK - Fruitland, Sugar-Sale, Homedale, Kimberly
WORK TO DO - American Falls, Buhl, Snake River, Weiser, Teton, McCall-Donnelly, Bonners Ferry
ON THE BUBBLE - Gooding, South Fremont, Filer, Bear Lake, Moscow
By my count, eleven of the twelve spots are essentially decided. Bonners Ferry took a major step forward towards claiming the Intermountain League title with their 41-26 win over Moscow last Friday. All the Badgers have to do is avoid stubbing their toe in two weeks against Timberlake, and they'll claim the IML title (and likely, the only playoff bid available from the north).
Essentially, there will be five or six teams competing for the final playoff spot, but the real contenders to me are Gooding, South Fremont and Filer. Gooding defeated Filer last Friday, 30-22, so the Senators have a leg up on the Wildcats. The Senators travel to Wood River this Friday, and finish the regular season at Kimberly, which will help their strength of schedule ranking. Gooding cannot lose to Wood River if they want to remain as the last team in.
Filer finishes the campaign with Mountain Home and Buhl. The Wildcats probably need to go 2-0 in that stretch to clinch a playoff bid, but make no mistake, a loss to the Tigers this Friday would all but eliminate Filer from contention.
South Fremont has the toughest road to hoe, as the Cougars have just one game remaining: this Friday against Teton. Could a win over the 7th-ranked Timberwolves be enough to nudge South Fremont into the playoff picture? They have to win, no doubt about it, but they probably need some help in the form of Gooding or Filer losing this Friday as well.
CLASS 3A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1-2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (1 automatic bid)
District 4-5 (1 automatic bid)
District 6 (1 automatic bid)
At-Large (8 bids)
LOCK - West Side, Ririe, North Fremont, Aberdeen, Declo, Nampa Christian, West Jefferson
WORK TO DO - New Plymouth, Malad
ON THE BUBBLE - Melba, Firth, Soda Springs, Grangeville, Marsing, Priest River, Kellogg
While their overall MaxPreps numbers may not look impressive (West Side, Ririe and North Fremont are the only teams with positive numbers right now), the rest of the field is lagging behind the top seven teams. I'm being a little more aggressive here than usual, but generally, I think those top seven teams should feel good about their "lock" status.
New Plymouth and Malad are really close to clinching as well. The Pilgrims only have one game remaining, next week against Nampa Christian, in a game that will most likely decide the Western Idaho Conference title. Obviously the 'Grims would clinch an auto bid with a win over the Trojans, but even a loss to a highly regarded Nampa Christian team should be enough to get New Plymouth in.
Malad is in a similar boat. The Dragons conclude their season against Declo and West Side, and two wins would definitely get Malad in. It could even net the Dragons the regular season District 4-5 title, but it would require some tiebreaker math against Aberdeen and West Side.
What about the battle at the bottom of the cut line? Right now, Melba and Firth are the last two teams in. Melba is 0-6 and finishes the regular season with Parma and Marsing. In the MaxPreps era, no winless team has ever qualified for the playoffs, and I think Melba could go 1-1 and possibly still qualify. Of course, finishing 2-0 would be the preferred method of entry.
Firth is 2-6, and has just one game remaining: this Friday at home against West Jefferson. A win over the Panthers would certainly boost Firth's stock. They could maybe still qualify with a loss, but it would be a very stressful week for the Cougars in the final week of the regular season.
Soda Springs, Grangeville and Marsing are breathing down Firth's neck, as that entire group is separated by less than four total points in the MaxPreps rating system.
Soda Springs has one game left: this Friday against Aberdeen. Same story for Grangeville: it's this Friday against Kellogg. Only Marsing has two games remaining: at Nampa Christian and at home against Melba. If the Huskies can knock off Nampa Christian, they'll probably leapfrog all of those other teams (including Firth and Melba). More likely, a 1-1 split would at least maneuver the Huskies past Melba, but I'm not sure if that's enough to overtake Firth or Grangeville.
Up north, it's been apparent for awhile that the Central Idaho League (District 1-2) will most likely only get one team into the playoffs this year, and that will be the league champ. With a win against St. Maries this Friday, coupled with a Grangeville win over Kellogg, Priest River can wrap up the CIL title before their regular season finale with Kellogg. A Priest River loss coupled with a Kellogg loss would set up a winner-take-all showdown in Week 10. And a Priest River loss combined with a Kellogg win would also set up the winner-take-all scenario. By my math, Grangeville has no shot at the CIL title unless Priest River drops both of its' final two games. The Bulldogs would also need to defeat Kellogg in that scenario.
CLASS 2A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (1 automatic bid)
District 4 (1 automatic bid)
District 5-6 (1 automatic bid)
At-Large (8 bids)
LOCK - Kendrick, Kamiah, Logos, Grace, Hagerman, Prairie, Raft River, Potlatch
WORK TO DO - Valley, Glenns Ferry
ON THE BUBBLE - Clearwater Valley, Oakley, Butte County, Murtaugh, Idaho City, Notus
I've officially placed eight teams in as "locks." The four conference champions all receive first-round byes, so here's how each of those races are shaping up:
DISTRICT 2 - Kendrick (4-0) faces Logos (2-1) this Friday. With a win, the Tigers will officially clinch the regular season title. If Logos wins, they would need to defeat Potlatch in Week 10, and have Kamiah (3-1) lose to either Potlatch this Friday or Lapwai in Week 10. Kamiah needs Kendrick to lose each of their final two games, against Logos and Prairie, coupled with two Kub wins.
DISTRICT 3 - Idaho City (2-0) hosts Notus (2-0) this Friday. A win by Idaho City would clinch the District 3 title. A win by Notus, followed by a subsequent win over Wilder in Week 10, would get the job done for the Pirates. Wilder (1-1) needs to defeat Centennial Baptist this week and Notus in Week 10. They also need Notus to defeat Idaho City on Friday. Adding to the intrigue is the fact that only one team from this district will qualify for the playoffs, as all three teams mentioned here are well below the cut-line on MaxPreps.
DISTRICT 4 - Raft River (3-0) controls its destiny, as the Trojans will finish up with Valley (2-2) this Friday and Hagerman (2-2) in Week 10. A sweep would obviously net Raft River the title. Even a loss to Valley, coupled with a win over Hagerman, would do the trick for the Trojans. A loss to Hagerman gives the Pirates the conference crown. Valley cannot mathematically win the conference, but they sure can play spoiler with a win over Raft River.
DISTRICT 5-6 - It's only Grace and Butte County in this two-team district. The rivals will play in Week 10 for the conference title. For Butte County, their playoff lives may depend on defeating Grace.
In my estimation, 11 of the 12 playoff spots are accounted for. Clearwater Valley (0-7), Oakley (1-6), Butte County (1-6) and Murtaugh (1-6) are all within two points of each other on MaxPreps. The Rams have the easiest path from here with games against Lapwai and Troy to finish out the schedule. Oakley earned a dramatic 44-36 win over Murtaugh last Friday, which gives the Hornets the leg up on the Red Devils. Each team only has one game left, ironically against the same opponent: Oakley plays Glenns Ferry this week, while Murtaugh takes their shot at the Pilots in Week 10. If Oakley loses and Murtaugh wins, the Red Devils could jump the Hornets, even with the head-to-head loss.
Finally, Butte County wraps up with Hagerman and Grace. Going 2-0 would definitely get the Pirates in. Going 1-1 (with a win over Grace) would also get Butte County in by virtue of winning the district title. Going 1-1 (with a win over Hagerman) could also be enough. The intriguing question is: does going 0-2 against two top five MaxPreps teams net Butte County a strong enough strength of schedule to nudge the Pirates in? Only MaxPreps knows for sure.
CLASS 1A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1 (1 automatic bid)
District 2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (1 automatic bid)
District 4 (1 automatic bid)
District 5-6 (1 automatic bid)
At-Large (7 bids)
LOCK - Tri-Valley, Council, Genesee, Carey
WORK TO DO - Wallace, Coeur du Christ, Salmon River
ON THE BUBBLE - Hansen, Garden Valley, Deary, Lewis County, Timberline, Rockland, Challis, North Gem, Lakeside
There has been such wild fluctuation in MaxPreps point totals from week to week at this level, that I'm hesitant to declare anything beyond the top four teams being "locks."
In District 3's Long Pin Conference, Council (2-0) controls its destiny. The Lumberjacks face Salmon River (1-1) this Friday and Tri-Valley (3-0) in Week 10. Two wins gives Council the conference title. A win over Salmon River, but a loss to Tri-Valley gives the Titans the nod. A loss to Salmon River, and a win over Tri-Valley, could force a three-way tie for first, provided the Savages take care of Cascade in Week 10. All three should feel good about their playoff odds regardless, but only one will get the conference title and the first round bye that comes with it.
In District 4, Carey (4-0) battles Shoshone (3-1) this Friday. With a win, the Panthers will clinch the Sawtooth Conference title. A win by Shoshone, coupled with a win by Hansen (3-1) over Castleford next week, could force a three-way tie for first place. Unlike the Long Pin, Hansen and Shoshone have less solid ground to stand on when it comes to their playoff fate.
In east Idaho's Rocky Mountain Conference, Challis (4-0) took a large step forward with their 36-20 win over North Gem (2-1) last Friday. The Vikings will now battle Rockland (3-0) on Friday in their regular season finale. A win would give Challis the conference title. Rockland can also win the title outright with wins over Challis on Friday and North Gem in Week 10. A Rockland win over Challis, and a North Gem win over Rockland, would set up a three-way tie for first place. This is most likely a one-bid league, so these final two weeks will be intriguing, to say the least.
Up north, the Whitepine League in District 2 is just getting started. Genesee (1-0) and Deary (1-0) are the early leaders, with Lewis County (0-1) and Timberline (0-1) lagging behind. Here's how the final two weeks shake out:
WEEK 9 - Deary (1-0) at Lewis County (0-1); Timberline (0-1) at Genesee (1-0)
WEEK 10 - Deary (1-0) at Genesee (1-0); Lewis County (0-1) at Timberline (0-1)
The easiest way forward is for Deary and Genesee to both win this Friday, setting up a winner-take-all finale in Week 10. However, wins by either Timberline or Lewis County this week could complicate things significantly. I don't want to do extra math if I don't have to, so I'll address any scenarios that still linger after this Friday's games. In terms of the at-large picture, only Genesee has a strong enough MaxPreps ranking right now, so it would behoove all three teams to finish strong.
And in District 1's North Star League, Wallace (1-0) hosts Coeur du Christ (1-0) this Friday in a game that certainly looks like will decide the league title. The Saints finish with Clark Fork (0-1) in Week 10, while Wallace will conclude their regular season with Lakeside (0-1). A 2-0 finish by either Wallace or Coeur du Christ will clinch the league title and the first round bye that accompanies it. Lakeside recently saw star quarterback Tyson Charley rejoin the team after missing the first half of the season, so the Miners have the tougher stretch to finish.
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