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Hello! And welcome back to Baney's Bracketology, the weekly breakdown of which high school football teams in Idaho look good for the postseason, and which teams still have work to do.
There was significant movement in the MaxPreps rankings this week which serves as a helpful reminder: one good week, or one bad loss, can change a team's fortunes in an instant. Coaches try to hedge against this as much as they can when scheduling, but because no one actually knows the mathematical formula used to calculate MaxPreps' rankings, it can be a frustrating exercise.
Once again, we're categorizing teams into three categories:
LOCK - These are teams that are mathematically assured of a playoff spot. We will be somewhat judicious in handing these out this week, but will get more lenient with each passing week of action.
WORK TO DO - These are teams that should feel pretty good about their playoff chances, with room to improve their standing with strong performances
ON THE BUBBLE - These are the teams that are either just sneaking in, or just being left out, in our current bracket projections. One good performance can alter the cut line drastically, so all of the teams lumped in here should try and handle business themselves, rather than tempt the mathematical gods at MaxPreps.
Without further ado, let's get to it!
CLASS 6A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (6 automatic bids)
District 5-6 (2 automatic bids)
At-Large (3 bids)
LOCK - None
WORK TO DO - Rocky Mountain, Rigby, Eagle, Timberline, Mountain View, Madison
ON THE BUBBLE - Middleton, Capital, Coeur d'Alene, Boise, Meridian, Highland, Kuna, Thunder Ridge
I feel pretty good about the top six teams in the rankings: Rigby and Madison should both be safe from the east, while Rocky Mountain, Eagle, Timberline and Mountain View have bankrolled strong wins and a good strength of schedule. As all of those teams continue to win over the final three weeks, the rising tide will lift all of their boats. Rigby and Madison play each other this Friday on IdahoSports.com, and the winner of that game will become our first "Lock" at the 6A level.
We should note Middleton's 26-12 victory over Timberline last Friday. The Vikings have now leapfrogged the Wolves for second place in the Southern Idaho Conference's River Division, and could find themselves alone in first place with another win against Rocky Mountain this Friday (also on IdahoSports.com).
As a reminder, the winner of each division (Foothills and River) will play each other in Week 10 for the SIC Championship, and regardless of that outcome, both participants will receive byes into the quarterfinal round of the 6A postseason.
Also in Week 10, the last-place finishers from each division will play each other (with neither team able to advance to the postseason), while the remaining four teams from each division will play in cross-divisional games. The winner of each cross-divisional game earns an auto bid to the playoffs, while the losers of the cross-division games will have to sweat it out via the at-large process. The cross-division games will look like this (current projected matchups are in parentheses):
FOOTHILLS #1 vs. RIVER #1 (Eagle vs. Rocky Mountain)
FOOTHILLS #5 at RIVER #2 (Meridian at Mountain View)
RIVER #5 at FOOTHILLS #2 (Kuna at Middleton)
FOOTHILLS #4 at RIVER #3 (Capital at Owyhee)
RIVER #4 at FOOTHILLS #3 (Boise at Timberline)
FOOTHILLS #6 vs. RIVER #6 (Borah vs. Centennial)
Up north, Coeur d'Alene is still the heavy favorite. Their MaxPreps ranking took a tumble with last week's loss to Camas (Washington), but Post Falls and Lake City have struggled in recent weeks.
The most shocking development among this week's projected bracket is the exclusion of Highland. The Rams, after falling to Rigby 52-21, fell to the #13 spot on MaxPreps, pushing them below teams like Boise (2-4) and Meridian (1-5). With back-to-back games against Skyline and Madison, though, I expect the Rams' numbers to course correct. A sweep would be nice, but even one win over the next two should suffice.
CLASS 5A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1-2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (2 automatic bids)
District 4 (2 automatic bids)
District 5 (1 automatic bid)
District 6 (2 automatic bids)
At-Large (8 bids)
LOCK - Bishop Kelly, Hillcrest, Skyline
WORK TO DO - Blackfoot, Lakeland, Columbia, Century, Sandpoint, Twin Falls, Minico, Bonneville
ON THE BUBBLE - Ridgevue, Nampa, Lewiston, Emmett, Vallivue, Shelley, Preston, Skyview
This week's MaxPreps rankings are fairly clear cut: the top 16 teams all have positive MaxPreps numbers, while numbers 17-25 all have negative numbers. BIshop Kelly, Hillcrest and Skyline are so far ahead of the pack in terms of MaxPreps ranking, that I'm including them as "locks."
And honestly, most of the next group in the "Work to Do" category should feel good about their postseason prospects as well. With 16 teams advancing in this mega-bracket, you'd have to really stub your toe down the stretch to fall out of the chase.
To me, it looks like there are eight teams fighting for the final five spots. Vallivue's loss to Ridgevue last week did them no favors, as the Falcons currently check in as the last team in. Emmett also has fallen on hard times recently.
Shelley, at 0-6, is the first team out. Their three remaining contests are against Bonneville, Idaho Falls and Blackfoot. If the Russets finish 1-2, for an overall record of 1-8, is their strength of schedule enough to nudge them into the field? Probably not, so the Russets should view this matchup with the Bees on Friday as do-or-die.
Preston, meanwhile, is the 18th ranked team in this week's rankings, but the Indians are the defending champions from District 5. They've played a tougher schedule than front-runner Century to this point, and all it would take is a sweep of Century and Pocatello to vault the Indians not just into the playoffs, but into a top eight seed and a home playoff game. Needless to say, Friday's game in Preston between the Indians and Diamondbacks carries significant weight.
CLASS 4A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1-2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (1 automatic bid)
District 4 (1 automatic bid)
District 5 (1 automatic bid)
District 6 (1 automatic bid)
At-Large (7 bids)
LOCK - Fruitland, Sugar-Sale, Homedale, Kimberly
WORK TO DO - American Falls, Buhl, Snake River, Weiser, Teton
ON THE BUBBLE - Filer, McCall-Donnelly, Bonners Ferry, Payette, South Fremont, Gooding, Moscow
By my count, nine of the twelve spots are pretty much spoken for. Fruitland and Homedale clash this weekend, and the winner will be in the driver's seat for the overall #1 seed from MaxPreps, but both should still qualify for the first round bye that is awarded to the top four teams overall, regardless of how their matchup shakes out.
That's right, this bracket actually rewards the top four seeds (and the first round bye that accompanies it) to the top four ranked teams via MaxPreps, regardless of whether they were a conference champion or not.
The bottom of the bracket has seven teams fighting three spots. Most of these will be decided in head-to-head matchups, some as early as this week. For example, it sure looks like north Idaho is only getting one team into the bracket, so Moscow's road trip to Bonners Ferry this Friday will probably decide the Intermountain League title and the lone playoff berth that accompanies it. Similarly, Gooding and Filer will do battle this Friday in what could be a de-facto elimination game. Same for Payette and McCall-Donnelly.
South Fremont takes on Sugar-Salem this Friday, and I'm interested to see how playing MaxPreps' #2 team impacts the Cougars' strength of schedule rating. A win, or even a close loss, would do South Fremont a world of good.
CLASS 3A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1-2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (1 automatic bid)
District 4-5 (1 automatic bid)
District 6 (1 automatic bid)
At-Large (8 bids)
LOCK - None
WORK TO DO - Ririe, West Side, Aberdeen, North Fremont, West Jefferson, Declo, Nampa Christian
ON THE BUBBLE - New Plymouth, Malad, Soda Springs, Marsing, Firth, Melba, Grangeville, St. Maries, Priest River, Kellogg
I really wanted to put Ririe into the "Lock" category this week, and honestly, the top seven teams listed are probably safe to place into that designation, but I'll abstain for one more week. It's sort of a soft reset week for most of 3A's top teams, with favorable matchups against lower ranked opponents, but make no mistake: the final two weeks will feature several juicy head-to-head matchups that will ultimately determine who wins each conference and gets the first round bye that goes along with it.
The real intrigue comes from the bottom of the cut line, and throughout north Idaho's Central Idaho League. Not a single team from the CIL is currently ranked in MaxPreps' top twelve, which means whoever emerges from the north would be a bid-stealer at this point in time. Bummer for Firth, our "first team out" at #12 overall, but the Cougars have an opportunity to improve their standing with contests against North Fremont and West Jefferson to wrap up their campaign.
But back to the CIL for a moment. St. Maries and Priest River are each 1-0 in league play, while Grangeville and Kellogg are both 1-1. Priest River defeated Grangeville, while St. Maries defeated Kellogg. These teams are all evenly matched, and any of the four could emerge from the scrum as the champion of what will be a one-bid league. The first domino will fall on Friday, when St. Maries hosts Grangeville.
New Plymouth and Marsing do battle this Friday as well. Both are currently in the projected playoff field, but the loser may have to sweat things out. Malad plays West Side this week, and a close game could boost the Dragons' strength of schedule enough to move them past some of the other teams from District 3.
CLASS 2A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (1 automatic bid)
District 4 (1 automatic bid)
District 5-6 (1 automatic bid)
At-Large (8 bids)
LOCK - Kendrick, Kamiah, Logos, Grace
WORK TO DO - Hagerman, Prairie, Potlatch, Raft River, Valley, Glenns Ferry
ON THE BUBBLE - Clearwater Valley, Murtaugh, Lapwai, Butte County, Oakley, Idaho City, Notus
I feel pretty good about the top ten teams currently. There will be some movement within those top ten as most of them hail from either the Whitepine League (District 2) or Snake River Conference (District 4), and will have head-to-head opportunities to move up or down, but overall, that top ten is solidly ahead of the rest of the pack in the MaxPreps rankings.
So let's focus on the seven-team scrum for the final two playoff berths. This basically boils down to two different categories:
The Western Idaho Conference (District 3) champion
The final at-large team via MaxPreps
Notus and Idaho City will battle for the WIC crown and the auto-bid that comes along with it. There is no at-large option for the loser, and as long as neither team stumbles over the next two weeks, their showdown to conclude the regular season will serve as a de-facto playoff game.
That leaves Clearwater Valley, Murtaugh, Lapwai, Butte County and Oakley competing for the final at-large bid. Those teams are a combined 2-28 this season, but because of the rigorous conferences they play in, their strength of schedule rating allows them to hang on the playoff fringes. If any of these teams can find a win (or two, maybe) over these final three weeks could seize control of the last playoff spot.
CLASS 1A
PROJECTED BRACKET HERE
District 1 (1 automatic bid)
District 2 (1 automatic bid)
District 3 (1 automatic bid)
District 4 (1 automatic bid)
District 5-6 (1 automatic bid)
At-Large (7 bids)
LOCK - Tri-Valley, Council
WORK TO DO - Genesee, Carey, Wallace, Salmon River, Garden Valley, Coeur du Christ, Deary, Hansen
ON THE BUBBLE - Rockland, Shoshone, Timberline, Lewis County, Richfield, North Gem, Challis
With the exception of District 3's Long Pin Conference (where Tri-Valley and Council are evenly matched), the MaxPreps computers see the remaining conferences as dominated by one singular team (Wallace, Genesee, Carey, and Rockland). That means any win in conference won't help your MaxPreps rating much, as the computers view it as a "weak opponent". Similarly, any loss for those teams the rest of the way could send their stock tumbling, which is why I'm hesitant to place too many teams into the "Lock" category at this time.
Working in order of district, Wallace and Coeur du Christ meet up next week in a game that should decide the North Star League title, and the (likely) first round bye that comes with it. The Saints have an interesting non-conference battle with Deary this Friday (on IdahoSports.com) that could boost the stock of either team (as they are ranked 8th and 9th, respectively).
Speaking of Deary, the Mustangs are preparing for their showdown with Genesee in the regular season finale on October 24th in a game that could determine the Whitepine League champ. However, pitfalls remain for both teams. Next week, Deary plays Lewis County, while Genesee battles Timberline. A loss by either team there could upset the apple cart in a significant way. And a win by Lewis County or Timberline could vault them into the at-large conversation (the Spartans were our "first team out" this week).
District 3 seems fairly solid right now. Tri-Valley, Council, Garden Valley and Salmon River should all qualify for the playoffs. Tri-Valley and Council battle in the final week of the season, and the potential #1 overall seed in the 1A playoffs could be on the line, in addition to the conference title.
Carey continues to pace District 4's Sawtooth Conference. But MaxPreps doesn't think much of the rest of the conference this year. That lower-than-expected strength of schedule rating has dropped Carey to #4 overall, but the Panthers are most worried about continuing to stack wins. A showdown with Shoshone next week could decide the conference title. Carey's season finale a week later against 2A Valley in a non-conference game represents their best chance to move up the rankings with a signature win.
And in east Idaho's Rocky Mountain Conference, Challis is 3-0, while North Gem and Rockland are both 2-0. This is likely a one-bid league this year, so these next three weeks will serve as a a mini-postseason of sorts. Here's how the final three weeks will play out for these squads:
October 10th: Challis at North Gem
October 17th: Rockland at Challis
October 24th: Rockland at North Gem
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