Follow @Brandon_Baney on Twitter

Hello!  And welcome back to Baney's Bracketology, the weekly breakdown of which high school football teams in Idaho look good for the postseason, and which teams still have work to do.

Well, we've arrived at the final week of the regular season.  Some teams have already wrapped up conference titles, while generally, 90% of the playoff field overall should feel good about their postseason standing.  But for that other 10%, well....

Once again, we're categorizing teams into three categories:

LOCK - These are teams that are mathematically assured of a playoff spot.  We will be somewhat judicious in handing these out this week, but will get more lenient with each passing week of action.

WORK TO DO - These are teams that should feel pretty good about their playoff chances, with room to improve their standing with strong performances

ON THE BUBBLE - These are the teams that are either just sneaking in, or just being left out, in our current bracket projections.  One good performance can alter the cut line drastically, so all of the teams lumped in here should try and handle business themselves, rather than tempt the mathematical gods at MaxPreps.

Without further ado, let's get to it!

CLASS 6A

PROJECTED BRACKET HERE

District 1 (1 automatic bid)

District 3 (6 automatic bids)

District 5-6 (2 automatic bids)

At-Large (3 bids)

LOCK - Rocky Mountain, Rigby, Eagle, Mountain View, Timberline, Madison, Coeur d'Alene, Highland, Middleton, Owyhee

WORK TO DO - Capital, Boise

ON THE BUBBLE - Meridian, Kuna

The top four seeds are officially set: Coeur d'Alene clinched the Inland Empire League title with last week's win over Post Falls, while Timberline's 31-20 victory over Rocky Mountain officially wrapped up the Southern Idaho Conference's Foothills Division championship.  The Wolves will now face Eagle, the SIC's River Division champ, in the SIC Championship Game this Friday.  The Mustangs, along with east Idaho champ Rigby, clinched their top four seed the previous week.

Coeur d'Alene will be the only 6A team representing north Idaho this year, as Post Falls and Lake City are not strong enough in the MaxPreps rankings to garner at-large consideration.

In east Idaho, Madison travels to Highland on Friday.  The winner will finish second behind Rigby, clinch an auto bid to the postseason, and earn a first round playoff game at home.  The loser will most likely still qualify as an at-large team, but will travel for their playoff opener.

Now let's tackle the SIC. where the winner of each division (Foothills and River) will play each other in Week 10 for the SIC Championship, and regardless of that outcome, both participants will receive byes into the quarterfinal round of the 6A postseason.

Also in Week 10, the last-place finishers from each division will play each other (with neither team able to advance to the postseason), while the remaining four teams from each division will play in cross-divisional games.  The winner of each cross-divisional game earns an auto bid to the playoffs, while the losers of the cross-division games will have to sweat it out via the at-large process.  Here are the cross-division matchups:

FOOTHILLS #1 vs. RIVER #1 (Timberline at Eagle)

FOOTHILLS #5 at RIVER #2 (Meridian at Mountain View)

RIVER #5 at FOOTHILLS #2 (Kuna at Rocky Mountain)

FOOTHILLS #4 at RIVER #3 (Capital at Boise)

RIVER #4 at FOOTHILLS #3 (Owyhee at Middleton)

FOOTHILLS #6 vs. RIVER #6 (Centennial vs. Borah)

There really isn't too much to dissect here, unless one of the home teams is upset by a road squad.  Right now, it looks like there will be two at-large bids available to SIC teams that don't win their cross-division matchup.  Assuming all home teams win (which shouldn't be assumed), Owyhee and Capital would gain those last two at-large spots.  Meridian and Kuna pretty much need to score an upset, as their MaxPreps ratings aren't strong enough for at-large consideration.

CLASS 5A

PROJECTED BRACKET HERE

District 1-2 (1 automatic bid)

District 3 (2 automatic bids)

District 4 (2 automatic bids)

District 5 (1 automatic bid)

District 6 (2 automatic bids)

At-Large (8 bids)

LOCK - Bishop Kelly, Hillcrest, Skyline, Lakeland, Twin Falls, Blackfoot, Sandpoint, Minico, Lewiston, Century, Columbia

WORK TO DO - Ridgevue, Bonneville, Vallivue, Shelley, Emmett

ON THE BUBBLE - Preston, Pocatello

Here's what we know in terms of conference champions/top eight seeds:

Hillcrest and Skyline have officially wrapped up the top two spots in District 6's High Country Conference.

Same for Twin Falls and Minico in District 4's Great Basin Conference.  The Spartans and Bruins play this Friday for the official conference title, and the winner could possibly move up a seed line depending on what happens.

Bishop Kelly officially won the Southern Idaho Conference title in District 3 with their win over Ridgevue last Friday.

So that leaves three top-eight seeds still to be sorted out.  Two of the three will also involve conference champions.  Still to be determined are:

The champion of District 1-2

The champion of District 5

The second-place finisher in District 3

In District 1-2, Lewiston defeated Sandpoint two weeks ago, while Sandpoint knocked off Lakeland last Friday, handing the Hawks their first loss of the season in the process.  So Sandpoint is finished in league play at 1-1, Lewiston is 1-0 and Lakeland is 0-1.  The cleanest outcome is a Bengals win over Lakeland, which would give Lewiston the league title.  If Lakeland wins, however, it would set up a three-way tie for first, and that would be decided for a Kansas City Tiebreaker on Monday evening at 6:00 PM at Coeur d'Alene High School.

A Kansas City Tiebreaker is essentially a jamboree, where each team starts with the ball at the 20-yard line and attempts to score.  If Team A beats Team B, then Team B plays Team C.  That format continues until one team is left unblemished.

Meanwhile, in District 5, if Century takes care of Pocatello on Friday, the Diamondbacks will win the conference title (and finish a perfect 8-0 to boot).  If Poky gets the better of their crosstown rivals, though, it would set up a three-way tie for first place.  This tiebreaker would be settled via MaxPreps ranking, which definitely favors Century.  Therefore, it appears that Preston and Pocatello are postseason longshots.

Incredibly, four teams are still in the mix to grab second place in the SIC.  It's an important distinction to make, because whoever grabs second place will automatically receive a top eight seed and a home playoff game for the opening round.  Here are the contenders:

Ridgevue (3-2): Wins over Vallivue, Columbia, and Nampa; Losses to Bishop Kelly and Emmett; Remaining game at Skyview

Vallivue (3-2): Wins over Columbia, Emmett and Skyview; Losses to Bishop Kelly and Ridgevue; Remaining game at Nampa

Columbia (3-3): Wins over Emmett, Skyview and Nampa; Losses to Bishop Kelly, Ridgevue and Vallivue; No more SIC games remaining

Emmett (2-3): Wins over Ridgevue and Nampa; Losses to Ridgevue, Vallivue and Skyview; Remaining game at Bishop Kelly

Here are all of the possible breakdowns:

RIDGEVUE BEATS SKYVIEW; VALLIVUE BEATS NAMPA; EMMETT BEATS BISHOP KELLY

Ridgevue (4-2), Vallivue (4-2), Emmett (3-3), Columbia (3-3); Ridgevue earns second by virtue of a head-to-head win over Vallivue

RIDGEVUE BEATS SKYVIEW; VALLIVUE BEATS NAMPA; BISHOP KELLY BEATS EMMETT

Ridgevue (4-2), Vallivue (4-2), Columbia (3-3), Emmett (2-4); Ridgevue earns second by virtue of a head-to-head win over Vallivue

RIDGEVUE BEATS SKYVIEW; NAMPA BEATS VALLIVUE; EMMETT BEATS BISHOP KELLY

Ridgevue (4-2), Vallivue (3-3), Columbia (3-3), Emmett (3-3): Ridgevue earns second outright

RIDGEVUE BEATS SKYVIEW; NAMPA BEATS VALLIVUE; BISHOP KELLY BEATS EMMETT

Ridgevue (4-2), Vallivue (3-3), Columbia (3-3), Emmett (2-4); Ridgevue earns second outright

SKYVIEW BEATS RIDGEVUE; VALLIVUE BEATS NAMPA; BISHOP KELLY BEATS EMMETT

Vallivue (4-2), Ridgevue (3-3), Columbia (3-3), Emmett (2-4); Vallivue earns second outright

SKYVIEW BEATS RIDGEVUE; VALIVUE BEATS NAMPA; EMMETT BEATS BISHOP KELLY

Vallivue (4-2), Ridgevue (3-3), Columbia (3-3), Emmett (3-3); Vallivue earns second outright

SKYVIEW BEATS RIDGEVUE; NAMPA BEATS VALLIVUE; BISHOP KELLY BEATS EMMETT

Vallivue (3-3), Ridgevue (3-3), Columbia (3-3), Emmett (2-4); This sets up a three-way tie. Because Ridgevue defeated both Columbia and Vallivue head-to-head, the Warhawks would earn second place.

SKYVIEW BEATS RIDGEVUE; NAMPA BEATS VALLIVUE; EMMETT BEATS BISHOP KELLY

Vallivue (3-3), Ridgevue (3-3), Columbia (3-3), Emmett (3-3); Pure chaos! All four teams would tie for second place.  The tiebreaker would be broken using a point-differential system, with a maximum of +14 and a minimum of -14.  Here's everyone's totals heading into Week 10:

COLUMBIA: W over Emmett 34-14 (+14), L to Ridgevue 23-21 (-2), L to Vallivue 8-7 (-1); +11 TOTAL

RIDGEVUE: W over Columbia 23-21 (+2), W over Vallivue 13-7 (+6), L to Emmett 27-26 (-1); +7 TOTAL

VALLIVUE: W over Emmett 28-21 (+7), W over Columbia 8-7 (+1), L to Ridgevue 13-7 (-6); +2 TOTAL

EMMETT: W over Ridgevue 27-26 (+1), L to Columbia 34-14 (-14), L to Vallivue 28-21 (-7); -20 TOTAL

As you can see, in this scenario, Columbia would finish second.  In fact, that's the only way the 'Cats can clinch a top-two spot.  Also, after crunching the numbers, it looks like there is no mathematical way for Emmett to finish in the top two.

IMPORTANT UPDATE:

Michael Lycklama from the Idaho Statesman helpfully pointed out that if there is a four-way tie amongst Vallivue, Columbia, Ridgevue and Emmett, the fist criteria is records among tied head-to-head teams in the 5A SIC.  So if all four teams finished 3-3:

Ridgevue is 2-1 vs. Columbia, Emmett and Vallivue

Vallivue is 2-1 vs. Ridgevue, Columbia and Emmett

Columbia is 1-2 vs. Ridgevue, Emmett and Vallivue

and Emmett is 1-2 vs. Ridgevue, Columbia and Vallivue

So in this scenario, Ridgevue and Vallivue are the only teams in contention still.  The tie-breaking process starts over at this point, and Ridgevue's head-to-head win over Vallivue would garner the Warhawks second place.

Now let's come up for air.  At the end of the cut line, I'm honestly not sure if any of the teams outside of the top 16 can overtake the current top 16 teams.  Needless to say, it would behoove teams like Shelley, Emmett, Vallivue, Bonneville, etc. to finish the season strong with a win.

CLASS 4A

PROJECTED BRACKET HERE

District 1-2 (1 automatic bid)

District 3 (1 automatic bid)

District 4 (1 automatic bid)

District 5 (1 automatic bid)

District 6 (1 automatic bid)

At-Large (7 bids)

LOCK - Fruitland, Sugar-Sale, Homedale, Kimberly, Weiser, Buhl, Snake River, American Falls

WORK TO DO - McCall-Donnelly, Teton

ON THE BUBBLE - Gooding, South Fremont, Filer, Moscow, Timberlake

Amazingly, only two of the five districts have official conference titlists at this time: Fruitland in District 3 and Snake River in District 5.  With three other district crowns still up for grabs, the potential for bid-stealing is present, so teams near the cut-line like Gooding, South Fremont and Filer should be nervous.

In District 1-2, all Bonners Ferry has to do is defeat Timberlake on Friday.  A win would give the Badgers the Intermountain League crown with a perfect 2-0 record.  However, if Timberlake upsets the Badgers, that would create a three-way tie with Timberlake, Moscow and Bonners Ferry.  That would be decided via a Kansas City Tiebreaker on Monday.

It's a similar situation over in District 6, which also features three teams.  If Sugar-Salem defeats Teton in their finale Friday, the Diggers once again will be the champions of the Mountain Rivers Conference.  A loss, though, would set up a three-way tie with Sugar-Salem, Teton and South Fremont.  That tiebreaker would be settled via MaxPreps ranking, so Sugar-Salem essentially is the conference champion at this point.

A similar situation is developing in District 4, where Kimberly has the most straightforward path.  A Bulldogs win over Gooding would give Kimberly the undisputed conference title.  However, a Gooding win over Kimberly, coupled with a Buhl win over Filer, sets up a three-way tie for the conference crown.  That tiebreaker would be decided via MaxPreps, where Kimberly has a healthy lead.  A Gooding win over Kimberly would probably be enough to send the Senators into the playoffs as the last at-large team, as well.  But Gooding should really be hoping for a win over Kimberly and a Buhl loss to Filer.  That would put both Kimberly and Gooding at 3-1, while Buhl would finish 2-2.  In that scenario, Gooding would claim the outright league title by virtue of the head-to-head win over Kimberly, and that would assure the Senators an auto bid into the playoffs.

CLASS 3A

PROJECTED BRACKET HERE

District 1-2 (1 automatic bid)

District 3 (1 automatic bid)

District 4-5 (1 automatic bid)

District 6 (1 automatic bid)

At-Large (8 bids)

LOCK - West Side, Ririe, North Fremont, Aberdeen, Declo, Nampa Christian, West Jefferson, Priest River

WORK TO DO - New Plymouth, Malad

ON THE BUBBLE - Melba, Grangeville, Marsing, Soda Springs, Firth

Priest River officially clinched the Central Idaho League title from District 1-2 last week.  Even a loss to Kellogg in their season finale would still give the Spartans the edge in head-to-head tiebreakers over both Grangeville and St. Maries.  And thus, we have our first official bid stealer.  The Spartans, ranked 15th in MaxPreps, has squeezed out Marsing, the 12th team, in the current projections.  Marsing hosts Melba (the 10th team) to conclude the regular season, and while the winner will almost certainly play their way in, the loser will have to sweat out the final bracket to see if they qualify or not.

Grangeville is currently ranked 11th, and is the last team in right now.  After swimming underwater for the entire season, Grangeville has finally moved into the top 12 at MaxPreps in the final week of competition.  Unfortunately, the Bulldogs are idle this week, and will have to sit and watch other teams try to play their way in ahead of Grangeville.  Could Marsing move ahead of the 'Dogs?  Certainly.  Even Soda Springs (with a game against Aberdeen) could move ahead of Grangeville thanks to strength of schedule.

We mentioned Marsing vs. Melba in District 3 as a game to watch.  Also in the Western Idaho Conference, Nampa Christian will battle New Plymouth.  The winner will claim the regular season title, and the first-round bye that comes with it.  

The other conference champions have been decided.  Ririe from District 6 and West Side from District 4-5 are not only conference champions, but will most likely occupy the top two seeds once the final bracket is unveiled next weekend.

CLASS 2A

PROJECTED BRACKET HERE

District 2 (1 automatic bid)

District 3 (1 automatic bid)

District 4 (1 automatic bid)

District 5-6 (1 automatic bid)

At-Large (8 bids)

LOCK - Kendrick, Kamiah, Logos, Grace, Hagerman, Prairie, Raft River, Potlatch, Valley, Notus

WORK TO DO - Glenns Ferry

ON THE BUBBLE - Clearwater Valley, Oakley, Butte County

Two of the four conferences have been wrapped up.  Even with losses in Week 10, Kendrick (District 2) and, Notus (District 3) will have the tiebreaker edge, and thus, can begin making quarterfinal plans with a first round bye.

In District 5-6 (only a two team league), Grace entertains Butte County for the conference championship.  If the Pirates spring the upset over Grace, Butte County (currently ranked 13th) would steal yet another bid from a higher-ranked team (following in the footsteps of 15th ranked Notus).

In District 4, the winner of Friday's showdown between Hagerman and Raft River will claim the Snake River Conference championship.

The real drama lies within the fight for the final at-large playoff spot.  In an interesting twist, after starting the season 0-6, Oakley has snapped off two wins in a row and is currently the last team in.  Their schedule was originally set to expire after last week, but the Hornets, in an effort to goose their MaxPreps number one final time, quickly scheduled Garden Valley for one final non-conference game in Week 10.  Coach Brennan Jones is hoping that an Oakley win, or even a close loss to a good Garden Valley team, is enough to hold off Clearwater Valley, who plays a much weaker opponent in Troy.  The Rams will probably get the win over Troy, but it won't help their strength of schedule metrics. 

CLASS 1A

PROJECTED BRACKET HERE

District 1 (1 automatic bid)

District 2 (1 automatic bid)

District 3 (1 automatic bid)

District 4 (1 automatic bid)

District 5-6 (1 automatic bid)

At-Large (7 bids)

LOCK - Tri-Valley, Council, Genesee, Carey, Coeur du Christ, Salmon River, Wallace, Deary, Hansen, Garden Valley

WORK TO DO - None

ON THE BUBBLE - Lewis County, Timberline

This is the cleanest, most straightforward bracket there is.  The way I see it, there are 14 teams fighting for 12 spots (and three of those teams, Rockland, Challis and North Gem, are only considered because they could still emerge as champion of District 5-6, thus stealing a bid from someone else).

Coeur du Christ has won the District 1 title, and Carey has done the same in District 4.  Tri-Valley and Council do battle Friday night, and the winner will not only claim the Long Pin Conference title, but the top overall seed in the playoff bracket.  Meanwhile, Genesee faces Deary on Friday night, and the winner of that contest will win District 2.

On the other side of the District 2 standings, Lewis County is currently the last team in, while Timberline is the first team out.  The winner of their head-to-head showdown on Friday probably grabs that last spot.

Otherwise, the only drama lies in District 5-6's Rocky Mountain Conference.  Rockland faces North Gem on Friday.  A win by the Bulldogs gives Rockland the conference crown.  But if North Gem pulls off the victory, it would trigger a three-way tie between North Gem, Rockland and Challis, with all three teams defeating each other head-to-head.  That tiebreaker is decided by calculating every team's point differential against the other opponent.  Unlike other tiebreakers, this system is uncapped, which means you could win by forty points and all forty points would count in your ledger.

So how does everyone look?

CHALLIS: W over North Gem 36-20 (+16); L to Rockland 42-36 (-8); TOTAL (+8)

ROCKLAND: W over Challis 42-36 (+8); TOTAL (+8)

NORTH GEM: L to Challis 36-20 (-16); TOTAL (-16)

Needless to say, North Gem is behind the eight-ball.  The uncapped point differential means that North Gem would need to not only defeat Rockland, but do so by at least 25 points.  That would give the Cowboys a point differential of +9, which would be enough to move past Challis.

The Vikings need North Gem to win by 25 points or less.  If that occurs, Challis will emerge on top of the tiebreaker.

Again, it appears increasingly likely that only the District 5-6 champ will qualify for the playoffs, so there is no back-door way to enter the playoffs for these three teams.