Idaho High School Football Bracketology (Two Weeks Remaining)

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Hello! And welcome back to Baney's Bracketology, the weekly breakdown of which high school football teams in Idaho look good for the postseason, and which teams still have work to do.

With just two weeks to play in the regular season, some teams have already mathematically clinched a conference or league title, while others are mathematically "safe" when it comes to the MaxPreps rankings. Others, meanwhile, still have work to do and could be sweating things out until the actual brackets are unveiled.

When projecting how these brackets might look, and which teams are district champions, we first defer to the league standings. If there is a tie for first place, we will place the team with the higher MaxPreps ranking into the district champion slot.

Every bracket will feature 12 teams this year.

Without further ado, let's get to it!

CLASS 6A

Bid Allotment: North (2), East (2), West (5), At-Large (3)
Seeds 1-4 will be given to the North #1, East #1, West #1 and West #2. They will then be ranked 1-4 by MaxPreps ranking
Seeds 5-12 will be ranked by MaxPreps rankings
High seed will host through the semifinals

The 6A playoff picture is fairly straightforward. Coeur d’Alene has earned the benefit of the doubt after defeating Rigby two weeks ago, and after Rigby’s narrow one-point win over Thunder Ridge, the Trojans are looking up at Rocky Mountain in the MaxPreps rankings as well.

That’s crucial, because for the first time, the semifinal hosts will be awarded based upon MaxPreps ranking. In years past, the semifinal sites were predetermined on a rotating basis.

When looking at the current MaxPreps rankings, you have to examine the top 11 teams, rather than the top 12. That’s because District 1-2’s Inland Empire League gets two auto bids this year. Coeur d’Alene is, of course, locked in regardless, and Lake City, after defeating Post Falls last week, has a leg up on the Trojans in the three-team IEL. The Timberwolves are currently ranked 15th at MaxPreps, though, which makes Lake City a bid-stealer.

Right now, Capital would be team that gets squeezed out, but I would argue that a team that is only 3-4 should rightfully be on the cut line anyways. The Eagles finish the year with games against Middleton (currently ranked 16th) and Timberline (ranked 13th), so their strength of schedule will be lacking compared to some of the other teams on the cut line.

Thunder Ridge, ranked 14th, can absolutely play its way into an at-large bid with wins over Madison and Highland to conclude the year. In fact, with two wins, the Titans would possibly grab one of two auto bids available from District 5-6. A split could get the job done as well.

The Titans’ main competition for the final spot in the playoff field includes Kuna, Boise, Owyhee, Capital and Timberline (all from District 3).

CLASS 5A

4 District Champions receive auto bids
8 remaining at-large bids go to the highest teams by MaxPreps ranking
Seeds 1-12 will be ranked by MaxPreps rankings
Quarterfinals will be re-seeded with the remaining teams
High seed will host through the semifinals

The 5A coaches finally agreed to trim down their massive 16-team bracket in favor of a 12-team model like every other classification. While it will produce better playoff matchups overall, it has created a larger bubble, with several quality teams fighting for the final spots on the bracket.

As I see it, 10 of the 12 spots are solidly spoken for at this time. Shelley and Bonneville, currently the last two teams in, have several teams breathing down their necks. Add in the fact that the Russets and Bees face each other on Friday night, and the loser of that game will be feeling the heat.

Century is 0.14 points away from Bonneville in the latest MaxPreps rankings. With a head-to-head win over Bonneville last week, Century has a real chance to leapfrog Bonneville or Shelley with two wins to close the year. But since those games will come against 14th ranked Idaho Falls and 18th ranked Pocatello, so they will have to win in convincing fashion to impress the computers.

Idaho Falls and Pocatello both need to run the table to make a real run at a playoff spot. Both teams play Century, while Idaho Falls will also take on Bonneville. Pocatello plays Blackfoot this Friday, so a win over the Broncos will be more impressive than a victory for Idaho Falls over Bonneville to the computers.

Over in District 3, there’s a large group of teams currently on the outside looking in. Ridgevue has the weakest remaining schedule, so even with wins over Nampa and Centennial to finish the year, I don’t think the Warhawks will have enough juice to climb from 17th (where they are currently) into the field of 12.

The other teams from District 3 that are on the cut line (Nampa, Vallivue and Skyview) all have opportunities to climb simply because they play top-ranked Bishop Kelly, third-ranked Columbia, or in the case of Skyview, both. While playing these teams will boost each squad’s strength of schedule, these teams need to actually pull off the upset against BK or Columbia to have a chance to really move up.

CLASS 4A

5 District Champions receive auto bids
7 remaining at-large bids go to the highest teams by MaxPreps ranking
Seeds 1-12 will be ranked by MaxPreps rankings
Quarterfinals will be re-seeded with the remaining teams
High seed will host through the semifinals
If two conference opponents play and one is the conference champion, the conference champion will host

One quick bracket note to point out before we dive into the actual MaxPreps rankings: notice how it says, “If two conference opponents play and one is the conference champion, the conference champion will host”? Yeah, that’s almost exclusively reserved for District 3’s Snake River Conference. Five of the top six spots in the current MaxPreps rankings belong to the SRV.

Similar to 5A, I think the top 10 teams can all feel pretty good about their playoff standing right now. Bonners Ferry and Preston can wrap up the last two spots by winning out. There’s maybe an outside shot of Moscow leapfrogging someone if the Bears can defeat 5A Lakeland this week, but I don’t see any other team being able to overcome their deficits in the computer rankings. Teams like Wood River, Bear Lake, Teton, etc. need Preston or Bonners Ferry to lose along the way somewhere.

There could be a wild scenario where Timberlake (currently ranked 20th), Snake River (ranked 17th), or Bear Lake (ranked 15th) could emerge as a bid-stealer by winning their respective district. Timberlake plays Bonners Ferry on Friday and Moscow the following week, so with two wins the Tigers would win District 1-2 outright. A win over Bonners Ferry and a loss to Moscow would force a three-way tie for the Intermountain League crown, as the Badgers nipped Moscow by a point in double overtime last Friday.

In District 5’s South East Idaho Conference, American Falls and Preston each started the three-game conference slate with wins. Both came by one possession or less, though, so Bear Lake and Snake River still have a great opportunity ahead of them. Bear Lake hosts Preston on Friday while Snake River travels to American Falls. We’ll have more clarity after this weekend.

CLASS 3A

5 District Champions receive auto bids
District 1-2 will receive a second auto bid
6 remaining at-large bids go to the highest teams by MaxPreps ranking
First round byes will be given to the top 4 District Champions by MaxPreps ranking
The lowest-ranked District Champion will host a first round game
Quarterfinals will be re-seeded with the remaining teams
High seed will host through the semifinals, and can choose game site (either home or neutral)

At this point, I think 11 of the 12 teams listed on our projected bracket can feel pretty good about making the state field. The intrigue centers around which teams will actually emerge as district champions and earn a first-round bye.

The District 1-2 title will be decided one way or another by Grangeville, which hosts Logos and Priest River to conclude the season. A sweep gives the Bulldogs the outright crown. A win over Logos and a loss to Priest River means the Spartans are the Central Idaho League champs. And a loss to Logos and a win over Priest River would create a three-way tie for the CIL title. That tie would be settled via a points-differential system.

District 3 is in a similar boat. Marsing, Melba, Nampa Christian and New Plymouth are all 2-1 in conference play. Melba defeated Marsing and Nampa Christian but lost to New Plymouth. New Plymouth has defeated Melba, lost to Nampa Christian and plays Marsing on Friday. Nampa Christian owns a win over New Plymouth and a loss to Melba. And Marsing will finish the year with back-to-back games against New Plymouth and Nampa Christian. For the sake of brevity, we will outline the potential tie-breaker scenarios next week. But a tie of some sort is most likely to occur here.

Declo visits Malad in a fun non-conference game this week that will only add wind to the Hornets’ MaxPreps sails. The Hornets and Dragons will each play in a de-facto conference championship next week, though, as Declo hosts Buhl for the District 4 crown and Malad travels to West Side to determine the District 5 champ.

Right now, Ririe is the only team on the cut line with a significant chance at moving into the playoff field. Their MaxPreps number is 32.01 while New Plymouth, the last team in currently, sits at 32.73. The Bulldogs finish their season with home games against 14th ranked Salmon and 18th ranked Firth, so even with two wins, they may not have enough juice to overcome New Plymouth. They would need the Pilgrims to slip up somewhere.

CLASS 2A

5 District Champions receive auto bids
7 remaining at-large bids go to the highest teams by MaxPreps ranking
First round byes will be given to the top 4 District Champions by MaxPreps ranking
Quarterfinals will be re-seeded with the remaining teams
High seed will host through the semifinals
If a conference champion is playing a team that did not win its conference in the quarterfinals, the conference champion will host

There’s a cluster of teams stacked between #11 and #15 right now in the MaxPreps rankings. I’ve listed them in order with their overall record and MaxPreps ranking number in parentheses:

11. Idaho City (3-2, 53.66)
12. Grace (2-5, 52.39)
13. Lapwai (3-5, 50.30)
14. Valley (3-4, 49.87)
15. Tri-Valley (2-3, 49.44)

Idaho City finishes the year with Garden Valley and Notus, so with two wins, the Wildcats would claim the District 3 title outright. Even with a split or two losses, their strength of schedule will be just fine, so I think you can safely pencil the Wildcats in.

So who grabs that last spot? Grace, a team that forfeited its contest with Flint Creek (Montana) last week, has now earned a forfeit win this week courtesy of Challis. That counts as a 21-point win in the MaxPreps math, which is the maximum margin of victory their formula allegedly allows. Grace then finishes the year with a game at #6 Butte County that will determine the District 5-6 championship.

With all of that in mind, I don’t know if any of the teams below Grace can leapfrog them, not with Grace picking up a 21-point win without setting foot on the field followed by a game that will only aid their strength of schedule.

Lapwai finishes the year with #8 Kamiah this week, followed by a bye in the final week. You definitely want to be playing in the last week of the season, so Lapwai’s schedule to close out is not ideal.

Valley will host #3 Raft River this Friday and is scheduled to play Challis in the final week of the season. Considering Challis has forfeited a couple of games already this year, we’re most likely going to see a 21-point forfeit win for Valley there. Could a win over Raft River and a “win” over Challis get Valley across the finish line? It’s possible.

The Tri-Valley Titans will only get seven games on their schedule this year, through no fault of their own. Centennial Baptist and Rimrock both folded before the season began, and on such short notice, the Titans were not able to find replacement opponents. So with less games overall and already sitting in 15th, I don’t think Tri-Valley can move up into an at-large berth, even with wins over Wilder and Garden Valley to conclude the season.

CLASS 1A

This classification also appears to be fairly well set. You could make an argument that Genesee (ranked 13th), Lewis County (ranked 14th) or North Gem (ranked 15th) could all make leaps over 12th ranked Mackay (currently our last team in) due to their strength of schedule ranking increasing. Genesee finishes the year with #9 Deary, Lewis County tangles with #1 Kendrick and North Gem plays #2 Rockland.

The problem for all three of those teams, though? They also have a bye over the last two weeks of the season, so any gains made by playing a tough opponent are completely wiped out.

At the top of the 1A rankings, Carey finds itself ranked third, behind #1 Kendrick and #2 Rockland. The Panthers were originally supposed to play Camas County this week, but the Mushers have forfeited. Rather than take the 21-0 “win” in MaxPreps, though, the Panthers are gambling. Carey has scheduled a non-conference game with #5 Salmon River, a team that originally had a bye this week. Carey is banking on the fact that, win or lose, playing a top five team will move the Panthers’strength of schedule even further ahead of Rockland, and perhaps that would be enough for Carey to leapfrog Rockland for the second spot overall. This matters because the top two teams in MaxPreps get to host semifinal contests.

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